How much Tron: Ares needs to make at the box office to break even

After years of being stuck in development hell, Tron: Ares has finally arrived in cinemas. Following its second weekend, you might be wondering if it’s considered a box office success. To answer that question, we need to look at its budget. 

The sci-fi movie marks the latest in the Disney franchise, which kicked off with the neon-drenched 1982 flick Tron. After building a cult following thanks in part to its groundbreaking special effects, sequel Tron: Legacy dropped in 2010.

The threequel, led by Jared Leto as a super-intelligent program named Ares, took another 15 years to make it to the big screen. The new film has received a lukewarm reception from the critics, earning just 53% on Rotten Tomatoes. 

Tron fans are more forgiving, scoring it 86% so far. The question now is whether Ares can electrify audiences beyond its devoted fanbase – and, more importantly, is it a box office success?

How much Tron: Ares needs to make to break even

Firstly, let’s consider how much it needs to make at the box office: with a reported production budget of approximately $180 million, it needs to draw in around $450 million minimum. 

How did we get to that figure? Well, the rule of thumb is that new movies need to make approximately 2.5 times their original budget to break even due to the additional costs such as fees to exhibitors, merchandising, and taxes. 

The $180 million sum is the estimated production budget, meaning there are also marketing costs to consider, which for Disney franchise flicks can exceed $100 million. Plus, studios only keep about 50-60% of box office revenue (and even less from international markets). 

So, even if Tron: Ares hits $450 million, it wouldn’t represent a major profit, but rather a modest return for a film of this scale and cost.

Tron: Ares box office total

Disney

As of October 20, 2025, Tron: Ares has made over $54.5 million in North America and $48.4 million internationally, bringing its total box office haul to nearly $103 million.

This is a 66% drop in domestic sales in its second weekend, having made just over $33.5 million in North America during its opening weekend, alongside $27 million internationally.

Original predictions estimated a $40-45 million domestic opening weekend, with a $80-90 million global total. The underperformance was only made more glaring by the fact that there wasn’t much competition, with Roofman the only other big release at that time.

However, many US audience members were no doubt busy watching the MLB playoff game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, as well as the 12 NFL games on October 12.

David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research, told Variety, “The movie was tracking well, but interest stalled during the last 10 days and the opening dropped.”

Disney

But, he added that “the science fiction genre has always done well overseas. This is effects-driven, good-guys-versus-bad-guys storytelling that’s understood and well-liked across all cultures.”

In the second weekend, Black Phone 2 released in cinemas, with the new horror movie taking top spot with a $26.5 million domestic haul.

Even though Tron: Ares sales may pick up in the months to come, the huge drop off suggests it won’t be a box office success. As stated by Forbes, the steep dive mirrors the MCU’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps, which dropped by 67% in its second weekend in North American theaters.

If this continues, the outlet said that “the film’s next best chance to recoup its production and marketing costs will come with the film’s release on digital streaming.”

Until then, check out the new movies coming to streaming this month and keep tabs on what’s coming up with our 2025 movies release calendar.